Following the decision of the Royal Court of Guernsey in Helmot v Simon (14th January 2010) to reduce the discount rate on lump sum damages for future losses to 1 per cent, we ask Dr Victoria Wass, expert witness on the indexation of care costs in the Thompstone appeal cases, for her views.
Why Guernsey?Any challenge to the 2.5 per cent discount rate in the calculation of a lump sum award in England and Wales was effectively ruled out in the cases of Warriner v Warriner [2002] and Cooke v Bristol United Health Care Trust [2004]. However, the Royal Court of Guernsey decided that it was not bound by the 2.5 per cent discount rate because Guernsey had not legislated along the lines of the Damages Act and so it was able to hear the arguments for and against a reduction. I quote from the judgment at para. 186.The discount rate of 2.5% set by the Lord Chancellor has not, as a matter of law, been adopted by legislation or by custom and practice in Guernsey. It is therefore for the court to set an appropriate rate taking into account the evidence and submissions of the parties. Incidentally, it is for this reason also that the claimant could not receive his damages in the form of a periodical payment. How did the court approach the task of reviewing the discount rate?Their starting point was the 100 per cent compensation principle (see para187) which is also the starting point under English law. The courts considered the 2.5 per cent discount rate and examined whether or not, on the 100 per cent principle, it should be amended for Guernsey (see para. 188). Given lack of compulsion, the 100 per cent starting point and the agreement between all the experts that 2.5 per cent would probably leave the claimant under-compensated (para.169), it was inevitable that the court would make a reduction from 2.5 per cent. How did the court approach the task of recalculating the discount rate? The court adopted the same form of calculation as was undertaken by the House of Lords in 1998 and the by the Lord Chancellor in 2001. The discount rate is calculated as the annual average yield on ILGS over the preceding three years on the assumption that RPI inflation was 3 per cent in each year. It is widely recognised that yields on ILGS have declined since the discount rate was set in 2001. Experts for the plaintiff calculated that a Guernsey resident investing in ILGS in 2001 would have earned a yield of 2.18 per cent pa net of Guernsey tax. At the time of trial the same calculation produced a net annual yield of 1.13 per cent. The difference, entirely due to falling yields on ILGS, is 1.05 percentage points (see para. 194). There is a further difference to consider. Guernsey RPI inflation is generally higher than UK RPI inflation. The plaintiff’s experts calculated the difference at an average of 0.5 per cent pa. This was not challenged by the defendant’s expert (see para. 193). The court determined the discount rate in this case as follows:
| 2.50 |
UK discount rate as the starting point |
| - 1.05 |
ILGS net yield 2001 – ILGS net yield 2009 |
| - 0.50 |
Guernsey RPI inflation – UK RPI inflation |
| 0.95 |
Rounded up to 1.00 per cent |
It is recognised that UK earnings-based losses and expenditures increase faster than do prices-based ones and, in a periodical payment form of award, claimants are compensated accordingly. How did the court approach compensation for earnings-based losses in this case? For me this is the more interesting issue. In England and Wales the Lord Chancellor sets a single discount rate for all heads of damages and any consideration of different rates for different heads, or a lower single rate to account for real earnings growth under some heads, was ruled out in the cases of Cooke and Warriner (see above). We have already seen that the Royal Court of Guernsey is not similarly bound. However, although over three quarters of the plaintiff’s future losses were earnings-based in this case, the court did not in fact consider whether or not it ought to and, if so, how to include the differential between earnings inflation and prices inflation when determining the discount rate. The discount rate was calculated only in relation to the UK RPI, the Guernsey RPI, Guernsey tax rates and the yield on ILGS over the period 2007-2009. The reason that real earnings growth was not considered is a simple one. There was and is no suitable measure for the wage inflation for carers, or even for general wage inflation. The States of Guernsey Government does not collect data and/or does not publish statistics on the earnings of its citizens and, without a suitable measure, the court decided that it was unable to answer either question. What implications, if any, does this have for the discount rate in English law? The evidence in relation to the setting of the discount rate has now been scutinised in a court of law, albeit one which lies outside the jurisdiction of English Law, and on the same basis as has previously been undertaken for the UK (in 1998 and 2001). The judgment appears to be one which is well-founded on the evidence presented to the court. The evidence concerned the relevance of declining yields on ILGS and wage inflation in excess of price inflation to the setting of the discount rate which, if allowed, would have been the same as would have been heard in an English court. The experts are probably the same ones who would have given evidence in an English Court. A vast array of earnings statistics are available for the UK, including ones that have been approved by the courts for use in the indexation of periodical payments orders. It is difficult to see how, if an English court had addressed the calculation of the discount rate, it would not have reached a similar conclusion in relation to declining yields on ILGS and, given the availability of suitable earnings data, may well have been prepared to consider a further reduction for earnings-based losses and expenditures.The evidence presented in Guernsey that the discount rate is excessively low in relation to the rate of return that a claimant can expect to achieve on a very low risk investment net of inflation, taxation and the costs of investment advice has been well known to the legal profession, to the insurance industry and to the Lord Chancellor for a long time now. It is not clear quite what is required to trigger a change in the discount rate. However, we are not long into a new Government and it may yet be that it is a new Lord Chancellor. If a conservative Lord Chancellor can, on the basis of science, propose the early-release of prisoners as a means of reducing overcrowding in HMS Prison service then he can surely make an evidence-based decision on the discount rate in the calculation of damages for personal injury. July 20th 2010